.⚝. Show Jump Log

[Eugene]

Figured I might as well start one of these. I'm a few generations in already (this is G4 I think?)

There are 15 mares with competition records this generation, of those, only five scored below 03:09.00 in L. 10 Show Jump competitions,
.⚝. Dodo - 03:08.13
.⚝. Spinning Oceans - 03:08.41
.⚝. 15 Step - 03:08.74
.⚝. Opulence - 03:08.90
.⚝. Snowy Day - 03:08.91

The next five scored below 03:10.00 in L. 10 competitions,
.⚝.Space Fishes - 03:09.19
.⚝.Ocean's Plates - 03:09.25
.⚝.Weird Eagle - 03:09.41
.⚝.Ocean Fishes - 03:09.68
.⚝.Bodysnatchers - 03:09.91

Ocean’s Plates is a full sister to three other mares in the first set, so she’s out. Space Fishes has a comparatively low strength conformation (29) so she’s out as well. That leaves 8 mares moving on to create G5.

Moving on to this generation's stallions, there are 7 with competition records.
.⚝. Nebula - 03:06.30
.⚝. Holographic - 03:07.81
.⚝. Space Jam - 03:07.99
.⚝. Oceanic Celebration - 03:09.49
.⚝. Hazy Oceans - 03:10.03
.⚝. Ava Adore - 03:10.91
.⚝. Hunting Bears - 03:10.93

Out of those 7 I'll only be breeding Nebula, Holographic, and Oceanic Celebration. Based on parentage (too lazy to look at grandparents) the pairs are,
Nebula + Spinning Plates, 15 Step, Opulence, Snowy Day, Weird Eagle, Ocean Fishes, or Bodysnatchers
Holographic + Spinning Plates, 15 Step, Opulence, Snowy Day, or Bodysnatchers
Oceanic Celebration + Dodo, Snowy Day, or Weird Eagle

For foals this go-round I'm looking for 60k+ HGP, gold balance, a positive strength comment w/ 30+ conformation, and a decent score in L.10 comps at 6 months old (less than 03:27.00)

[Aubergine]

So I lied, that last post was about G2!

After reading through BlackOak2's new guide - The Hidden Competition Genes: All About Heart (good read, stop reading this and go read that if you haven't) I went back through my last generation of mares' data and added a WPS column.

So here is an amended data set, which I now realize I never actually added to the first post but whatever, it's fine. It includes the top scores in level 10 player-made competitions, pertinent conformation and Breeders Report Scores (using Silverines guide for the numbers), and now also their WPS out of ~100 competitions. Everything is color-coded with red-green scales to help me see trends.



In this group of mares, the breeder's report seemed to have a greater impact on both scores and WPS. An average conformation was favored, with the highest and lowest conformation scores appearing primarily in lower-performing mares. The WPS correlated well with the high scores, leading me to conclude that my horses likely do not carry the intermittent heart gene, if that exists.

Another note - There were very few fillies born from these mares, so I had to revise my standard from the goal posted above to 'any filly born gets a chance'.

[BlackOak2]

I'm not sure what I'm seeing, I feel like I'm seeing something relevant, but this is great!

I'll be linking this to my quick links.

[Cypress Creek Elites]

Oh this is cool!
It's fascinating to me that you can see that the horses that had higher top scores weren't necessarily better (Ocean's Plates being the most consistent despite being just generally bad on paper, and the best... performing horse also having a below-average BR eval and, despite better time, fairly worse WPS).
I do not breed with any amount of pairing or deliberation (I just throw my horses at whoever's most likely to work well with them without any real examination of the horse) but maybe I should!

[Eugene]

Welcome to Generation 3!
Exciting things are afoot, the mares have broken into the 03:07's! Here is the G3 data set, with the same variables as before.


There is less to see here compared to the last generation. My theory is that as the quality gets higher, there will be less and less valuable information coming from the color scales. This is particularly apparent in the Balance BR column. While it looks like the overall balance must be terrible, the lowest scoring comment (82.9) is "This mare could do ballet she has such perfect balance!", which is actually very good.
Selecting for better strength seems to have been the correct path to take, as there is a correlation between higher strength and competitiveness. I'm not even thinking about agility and speed quite yet, however it is interesting that the worst agility comments are from the highest scoring mares.

There is less excitement on the stallion side of things. Unfortunately, most of the colts born in this generation were gargantuan. Enormous. Behemoths, even. I am 5 feet tall, and while it's true these animals aren't real I just cannot imagine myself riding a 21hh horse.
So the tall ones got rehomed, and since I thought I had way more colts than there actually were, there are now only 5. Whoops!

Lavish ~ ~ ~ 03:07.6
Baby Blue ~ ~ ~ 03:08.6
Felix ~ ~ ~ 03:08.6
Echoes ~ ~ ~ 03:09.0
Galactic ~ ~ ~ 03:09.9

Since all of the stallions are about the same (with the exception of Lavish, who has the funky new tightrope comment) which ones get to breed will be decided by parentage.

[BlackOak2]

There is an almost VAST difference between the former gen mare data and this latest one.

The last one had a few where they favored a number of best and worst, this one certainly has them spread out quite a bit more, with specific emphasis on the better top score they have, the better 'chance' of having a better set of tops across the graph. Eh... more easy to say and understand this way 'there's more greens on the top part then there are on the bottom.' Still a healthy grouping of reds all over. But overall, from worst to best, there's not too large of a range (BR side). The largest spread is the agility with a 27.3 point difference from worst to best.

The first set had a much larger spread of 39.4, but still in agility.

And (as I was enlightened to, because I just couldn't see it straight last time), this time the best scores are also pulling the best WPS. Last time, the top WPS belonged to a mare that gave a top score in the middle range. There's still a bit of a range for those top WPS from the top scorer to about halfway down, ... and... it does appear that there are a few weaker WPS horses that are performing stronger top scores. Intermittent hearts there? maybe?

I didn't mention it before (brain fry) but my 'favorite' mare from the last batch was split, both Space Fishes and Open Plates were quite interesting in the data layout. This time... maybe Bird Song and definitely Squall, the best WPS.

Very interesting to see this laid out!

[Eugene]

Hello hello! Welcome to G4!

Here is this generation's dataset.

Mares


Stallions


Yes, I'm aware that the columns don't line up, making it difficult to compare stallions and mares to each other. It's fine.

This generation looks approximately as I expected it to. The stallions are on average better than their predecessors, with five scoring below 03:08.00 in L. 10 competitions. The mares had a wider spread of scores, with Indulgence at the lead. She scored an impressive 03:06.62 in a L.6 show!

The top score/WP correlation is much more apparent in the mares group compared to the stallions. This may be because the stallions have a lesser range of scores.

As for who gets to breed, I'll be keeping the top 10 mares.
Indulgence
Thunder
Tweet
Party Animal
Meddle
Gila
Luxury
Pink
Blue Surprise
Lavish Lizard

As well as
Vibrant
Hammond
Party Cracker
The Judge

Typically I'd do some analysis or something but it's late and there was nothing unexpected. Onward to the next generation!

[Eugene]

Unfortunately, this generation will be a bit of a bottleneck, though some new blood may help keep COI down. I'm only keeping 8 mares back this time, out of 13. It was a good generation for colts, however! Almost every foal born seemed to be a colt, though with the exception of Not Today none of them were particularly exciting.

Here is the data for this generation's stallions and mares, those highlighted in blue are being held back for breeding.




The two high wps' you're seeing from Not Today and Stormfront are unlikely to be accurate representations of those horses' abilities. They were the first two to complete training, and so had limited competition compared to the others who competed against 3-4 of their siblings.

In the next batch of foals, I'll be looking for
- strength comments above 50 (using Silverines BR chart)
- green agility comments preferred in fillies and required in colts
- a score <03:27.01 in L. 10 local shows @ 6mo, this can be overridden if the foal has some crazy good comment or something
- a height between 9.0hh and 11.2hh as a newborn

I will be trying to avoid
- caring whether they are horse or pony type since it hasn't been proven to matter
- looking too closely at conformation. Conformation is important, but less so than the breeder's report and actual performance

[Aubergine]

Such is life, that school starts on Monday, and instead of contacting my PCP to get my immunizations sorted I'm typing a brief report on the state of my fake horses.

Here is this generation's data, names highlighted in blue are being held back for breeding.




All in all not super exciting. I added a column for foal score (best of five L.10 local comps at 6mo, no training) and have decided not to next time. There isn't enough correlation there for me to feel it's a necessary metric, and I'm lazy.

Strength is still not where I would like it to be, however things are starting to move around conformation-wise. The hips are becoming more sloped, and the jowls are getting thicker. Ideally, there will be a breakthrough once I get strength into the greens.

Goals for the next generation are the same as before, for the most part
- Mandatory green agility comment for colts, if enough fillies are born with green comments I'll only keep those ones
- No negative or neutral strength comments
- Over 55 balance, and over 38 strength unless there is something else exciting happening
- High foal test scores do not count as exciting

[Aubergine]

It's been a minute, whoops! So this project has been chugging along, nothing too exciting. The herd is definitely at the cusp of a strength breakthrough, I'm expecting to see some green within the next few generations hopefully.

I am officially not doing foal scores starting G9, there isn't enough correlation for me to justify it IMO, and it wastes a whole turn to test each foal. Foal scores probably made me toss more good foals than it weeded out bad.

Here's the data from the last two generations. I'm trying a new thing where I order them by lowest L. 10 Score, then highest WP. Their place in each list gets added together, and then those totals get sorted from smallest to largest and viola, they are ordered by score and WP. So far it seems to be working fine, 10/10.

G7 (it says fillies, but it's fillies and colts. I consolidated it for ease of screenshotting)


G8 (same deal as before, ignore that it says fillies)